How can we escape in these conditions from the collapse littérature quite popular at the moment in the West? But why don’t we just ask people what they think about it? Certainly we are in the field of subjective feeling, but despite all the cognitive biases highlighted by economists themselves, we know that this is ultimately what counts in understanding people’s behaviour.
And precisely, the common feeling about the state of the world and its future brings a large number of surprises. And first of all -according to the last winter survey of IPSOS Global Institute – a global level of optimism and satisfaction in life that borders on insolence: around three out of four inhabitants of the planet for the first, and a score of nearly 7 out of 10 for the second.
The Institute rightly separates three visions of the future: for oneself, for one’s country and for the planet. In all three cases, global optimism is striking, but also the huge contrast between emerging countries and Europe, particularly France at the bottom of pessimism.
Optimism for oneself: the emerging countries far in the lead
The level of optimism for his own future is amazing : 77% f or adults and even 87% for young people, against 19 and 10% respectively for pessimists, representing a net optimistic balance of 58% for adults and an incredibly high 76% for young people. There is even a small downside in this average since Ipsos calculates a purely arithmetic world average of 15 countries, as if a Chinese or an Indian fellow count as much as a German or a French. With a population-weighted average, we actually have a “net” balance of optimist of 74% in the global adult population and 10 points higher among young people.
Surprisingly, China and India are in the lead with a level of optimists close to 90% for adults and even 94% for young Chinese. Surprisingly, because the per capita income of Chinese is now about four times higher than that of the Indians. The same proximity is also striking for the life satisfaction index and the perceived happiness index, which is 7.8 out of 10 in China and 7.5 in India. It just reminds us once again that money does not make people happy even if economists like to remind us that there are still threshold effects: better to be richer than poor!
One might also think that this personal optimism is due to the rapid growth of these two Asian giants over the past 40 years or so, so their “relative” situation has improved significantly and that is what ultimately matters. The problem is that the same optimism appears in the case of Africa if we exclude countries in deep crisis and particularly those affected by violent conflicts such as the Republic of Congo or the Central African Republic. Nigeria and Kenya, far from being stable and growing at a much slower pace than Chindia, show adult optimism of 92% in the former and 90% in the latter with indices of perceived happiness of 6.4 and 6.2 respectively, the same level as developed European countries.
If we add Mexico (92% optimist) and Brazil (84%) but also Indonesia (89%) or Saudi Arabia (81%), this gives a good picture of an exceptional personal optimism in the emerging world. Moreover, even Putin’s Russia stands at 71%, just below Trump’s United States at 75%, but above Great Britain in full Brexit at 68%, Germany not far from 66%. France closes the pack with 50% optimism among adults and may explain the actual Yellow Vest contestation for the last four months.
Optimism for his country: the emerging countries still in the lead
On a population-weighted average, three-quarters of the world’s inhabitants are optimistic for their country, two points more than for themselves, with even higher scores for emerging countries such as China at 88% and even 94% for young people, 86% for Indians and 90% for its youth, but also Nigeria (80%), Kenya (78%) or Indonesia (77%). Brazilians or Russians appear more reserved this time, with only a little more than half of optimists for the future of their country but finally at the level of the USA. What strikes this time is the grouped shooting of Europeans around half being optimists only and even French pessimists at two-thirds. It cannot be said enough that the major phenomenon of recent decades is a feeling of « Renaissance » or even « revenge » in most emerging countries, and conversely a feeling of decline in the “old countries”, which Donal Trump reversed clearly in the case of the USA.
What about the future of the world?
“Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the world? “Once again, the average figure for the planet appears surprisingly high: 74% of optimist on a weighted average. And the importance of my statistical correction by the population weight is clear since Ipsos cites a global average of 60%. India and China again lead with a balance of optimist (minus pessimist) for the world of 72%, with Africa, Southeast Asia or Mexico in a range around 60%. Two out of three Russians and Brazilians are also optimistic for the planet, even though the number of pessimists reduces the net balance of optimism to a quarter of the population.
On the other hand, for all developed countries that look obviously more concerned about “their” world than “the” world, the 50% threshold of optimist is barely crossed. Differentiation is rather the weight of a pessimist. It is limited among Americans so that the net balance of optimists remains positive by ten points, while it is systematically negative among Europeans, even in Sweden and England around -10%, frankly negative among Germans -20%, and catastrophic among the French whose pessimists outweigh the optimists by… 47 points with 70% of French adults expressing pessimism for the future of the world. It is the only country where young people’s pessimism for the world (46%) outweighs optimists (43%), while the balance is reversed everywhere else in Europe, particularly in Germany (+11 points) and especially in England (+23 points). This is probably the deep root of the visible implosion of Europe.
All in all, emerging countries appear to be structurally optimistic about the future for themselves, for their country and for the world, and their demographic and economic weight is such that it is enough to give a global optimistic mindset that contrasts with a nightmarish French vision even much more pessimistic than in Germany, England or just about everywhere in Northern Europe. The French should get used to the idea that the world does not always turn as they think it does, and stop attributing to the world their own sense of powerlessness.
Jean-Joseph Boillot is co-chairman EIEBG (Euro-India Group) and a doctorate in economics. Jean focusses on emerging Asia particularly India & China since 1980s and also Africa from early 2000. He taught Economics in the prestigious Ecole Normale Supérieure before joining the French Treasury as an advisor ...
