A tsunami of COVID-19 has impacted us all socially, economically and psychologically. The focus in the initial phase was on saving lives (Jaan) and is now shifting to economic wellbeing (Jahaan) of individuals, business and country. There is another dimension to this pandemic, threat as well as a opportunity for the country (Hindustan). The downsides for India; are many with zero economic activity, disrupted supply chain networks, falling demand and government revenues, high unemployment, falling exports and no visible signs of global governance architecture responding to crisis in a joint and coordinated way. Global leadership is divided and there is a lack of trust, initiation and enthusiasm among leaders as the crisis is yet unfolding in many countries and scaling up, with huge socioeconomic losses.

India, in its extension of lockdown beyond 18th May, has allowed the series of relaxations, aimed at protecting livelihood (Jahaan). The key challenge for us is to restart our economic activity, in short, medium and long term. If a crisis has brought a baggage of problems, let us also see the vistas of opportunities that are before us to restart economic activity and build our country (Hindustan).

Be bold and boost liquidity into the system, say one leading economist, even if India has to mint and adopt deficit financing, bypassing the existing legal framework of financial responsibility. It can be achieved two ways, with the government offering loans to small and medium enterprises, shop owners and common people on liberal terms and lowest possible interest rates. For an Indian industry, which has access to foreign funds, there is a need to liberalize the existing regime for external commercial borrowing and foreign currency loans so as to address the both short term and long term capital needs of India Inc. Bank rates are falling (Table 1) and India Inc should be allowed to access this cheap capital not only to sustain but expand and diversify their business operations.

Falling oil prices (Table 2) are also a blessing in disguise for India, although too low prices are not good for India in the long run as it will affect inward remittances which are sent by Indian Diaspora in the Middle East. India’s oil import bills will not exceed 50% of what was in 2019 ($105 Billion), providing adequate leeway to the government to leverage these savings to address the vulnerabilities associated with MSMEs, migrant labour, and most vulnerable industries.

Liquidity so generated by foreign capital and domestic support measures will boost the demand which is vital for restarting the engine of the economy. Inflation (Table 3) is largely within the comfort zone and two months of lockdown, low consumer demand, loss of employment, etc., it is likely to be in the comfort zone for next 6-9 months. Additionally, India and its states should not lose the opportunity this time to open their doors with red-carpet for the industries, relocating from China to another part of the world.

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