The calls earlier this week for an emergency rate cut seemed to be a call for the Fed put, which, we argue is misunderstood. It is not about the stock market per se but financial...
The powerful yen short squeeze that has roiled the capital market this week has stalled today. It is the first day this week that the dollar has not fallen below the previous day’s low and...
The market put more weight on the rise in the US ISM manufacturing survey than the downward revision to the manufacturing PMI and the unexpected back-to-back decline in construction spending. US rates shot up and...
We have put emphasis on today’s US retail sales report. A recovery from the weather-induced weakness in January should underscore the resilience of US demand after another 200k jobs were created and personal income jumped...
After a strong showing yesterday, the dollar was sold in Asia and Europe. China announced a cut in reserve requirements and took more informal action to support the stock market, which encouraged risk-taking. Yet, the...
The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The Canadian and Australian dollars lead the advancers, while the Scandis are pacing the losers off 0.1%-0.2% in quiet turnover. Most the freely accessible emerging...
The back-to-back surprise rate hikes by the Australia and Canada spurred speculation that the Fed could hike next week, and this lifted US rates and helped the dollar recover. The odds of a hike increased,...
Another bizarre US debt ceiling episode is over. President Biden will sign the bill that was approved by the Senate late yesterday. It is a bit anticlimactic for the market, for which the US jobs...
A combination of a surprisingly strong prices paid component to the US manufacturing PMI, corporate supply, and US debt woes spurred an almost 15 bp spike in the US 10-year yield and 13 bp jump...
The dramatic shift in expectations for Fed policy is a potent shock, with reverberations throughout the capital markets. The business press was full of accounts putting the nearly 50 bp decline in the US two-year...
Seeing the drama he inspired on Tuesday, the Fed chair tried soft-pedaling the idea that he was signaling a 50 bp hike in March. The market did not buy it. And the odds, discounted by...
The focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve today. There is nearly universal agreement that it will lift the target by 25 bp. The market is inclined to see the shift as a sign that...
