“The old world is dying. The new world is slow to emerge. And in this twilight, monsters arise,” wrote Antonio Gramsci in the 1930s in his Prison Notebooks. But one might also add that opportunities are emerging that must be seized in order to bounce back.

This is the challenge facing emerging nations, which are confronted with a new reality just as they thought they were in the midst of a rapid catch-up. In recent years, the number of countries in the Global South in crisis has been growing, whether due to purely economic, political, or geopolitical factors. Why?

They are facing an era of multiple disruptions that follows the Western “Glorious Thirty” of the postwar period (1950–1980), then a wave of catching up in the emerging world, which benefited from globalization before experiencing a crisis with multiple facets.

The Demographic Rupture

The first disruption is demographic. Following the postwar baby boom in the West, then the population explosion in the developing world, the now-obvious scenario is that of a demographic crash that was entirely unforeseen just ten years ago. It is linked to a drop in fertility combined with a “gray boom,” the latter explained in particular by an exceptional rise in life expectancy.

The phenomenon is widespread across all countries, although it affects sub-Saharan Africa to a lesser extent and with a certain time lag. The fairly radical and early demographic shift in a country like China—which was attributed to its authoritarian one-child policy—is ultimately also unfolding in India, where the scenario of its population halving by the end of the century is becoming increasingly likely. This poses a major challenge for the emerging world, which had been counting on its demographic expansion to assert itself against the “old” industrialized nations.

The Ecological Crisis

The second major risk is climate change. The planet’s enormous ecological debt introduces short- and medium-term uncertainties (instability), a North-South conflict over the sharing of the “burden,” and the urgent need for a new agricultural and food revolution. These are accompanied by health challenges that compound those of an aging population, as evidenced by cardiovascular diseases (the fifth leading cause of death worldwide) or the current cancer epidemic, which is not sparing emerging countries. The world temperature will definitely increase by at least 4°C around 2050, and a country like India is already severely impacted.

The 4th Industrial Revolution

A third risk for emerging countries is technological lag. The turning point clearly lies in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, sometimes summarized by the acronym NBIC (nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science), with artificial intelligence (AI) as a cross-cutting driver that is clearly transforming our lives and economies.

This ongoing revolution is reshuffling the deck between the North, which seeks to regain the lead thanks to its scientific advantage, and the South, most of whose countries are falling behind in the race for innovation—except for certain leaders such as China, now on par with the United States, and India, but in a very different way. Some believe that science and related technologies will provide the solutions to the demographic and ecological crises. This is a mistaken view. Technology offers a range of possibilities but does not determine what will ultimately be implemented.

The Geopolitical Rift

Confrontations between blocs represent a fourth major challenge. China, the global leader across a now-expanded range of sectors and technologies, is viewed as the number one enemy by the United States. This major conflict is reverberating across the emerging world, as seen in Latin America and the Middle East, but also in Africa, which is being forced to choose sides amid skyrocketing geopolitical risk premiums.

This confrontation has a profound impact on the mode of production and consumption that could emerge in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, though no new model is clearly emerging at this time. In particular, we see a choice between a hyper-technological and unequal path on one side, and more frugal and inclusive models on the other.

Beyond the economic war that openly erupted in 2025 lies the response to the evolution of globalization, which was buried a bit too quickly. Greater trade regulation does not imply a decline in the interdependence of economies or a regionalization of value chains, as some have argued. China is more than ever the world’s factory, India the world’s office, and the string of trade agreements signed in recent months instead attests to the desire to remain in an open world.

This does not, however, rule out conflicts or heightened competition, as we are seeing with the new war over raw materials. All these strategic issues lead to the fifth driving force behind the shifting landscape: geopolitics and the political upheavals associated with it.

Between Confrontation and Multipolarity

Geopolitically, the risk of war cannot be ruled out, even if a repeat of the past—with a third world war that would be inevitable—must most likely be dismissed. There are, clearly, risks of war in contrast to the “happy” globalization that was promised after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. One obvious reason is that the West—and especially its American leader—does not want to relinquish its attributes of power, while the Global South seeks to wrest those prerogatives from it.

As has been the case most of the time in history, it is the established power that is ready to do anything, including leveraging its military might or even its hyperpower. Even though the reshuffling of the deck or shake-up appears palpable once again, with an “American empire” increasingly confronted by other empires—first China and secondly Russia—multipolarity is becoming widespread in other emerging countries out of opportunism and pragmatism.

Much will depend in the coming years on how the “multipolarity versus bipolarity” scenarios play out—that is, whether the world will be dominated by the U.S.-China duo and their respective allies, or whether it will be more balanced among a dozen or so centers of influence. Much will depend on the perception of what constitutes the best political regime suitable for sustained economic progress.