Amma is back

Amma as Jayalalitha is fondly called by her followers was brought into politics by her mentor, MGR who was a legendary film hero of Tamil Nadu. Jayalalitha used to be his heroine in many blockbuster movies. Soon after MGR’s death, Jayalalitha acquired a reputation of her own in politics. She had many ups and downs in her political career. Her career seemed to have reached a climax when she virtually swept Tamil Nadu in the Assembly elections in 2011 and also won 37 out of 39 seats in 2014 General Elections.

But good days were not to last long for her. The Trial court in Bengaluru convicted and sentenced her to 4 years in jail in September, 2014. She was released on bail in October. Having been in hibernation for the last 8 months, a big relief came on May 11 when Karnataka High Court set aside and acquitted her of all charges. Her troubles are not finally over since the High Court verdict can be challenged in the Supreme Court.

Temporarily the High Court verdict has come as a great relief to Jayalalitha. She can now once again assume the role of Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. It is also being speculated that she will declare snap elections in Tamil Nadu which is due to go for polls next year. This will be in order to reap the present wave of support to her party following the arrest and later acquittal of its leader, having been absolved of all charges against her.

Let us try to examine how all this will play out in national politics. Prime Minister, Modi was quick to congratulate Jayalalitha on her new victory. The BJP, which is short of a majority in the Rajya Sabha is keen to get support of new allies. A few days back Modi had also sent similar feelers to the West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamta Banerjee.

It remains to be seen which way Mamta and Jayalalitha will tilt – whether towards BJP or the newly emerging Alternate Front on the national scene. The BJP and particularly its President, Amit Shah has done enough to antagonize Mamta Banerjee and her party the Trinamul Congress. It is very much doubtful whether Mamta will be ready to forget all the animosity that has been generated in the recent past.

With Jayalalitha the situation is a little different. While the BJP has not done much to antagonize AIADMK and its leader Jayalalitha it is still uncertain whether the Tamil Party will tilt towards the BJP. Around the time of the last general elections there was speculation whether Jayalalitha would emerge as a possible PM candidate. For Jayalalitha chances of becoming Prime Minister still exist if she stands along with the Alternate Front.

Many of the supporters of Amma desire to see her as the leader of the country. Jayalalitha herself is known to possess such secret desires. But it remains a matter of speculation whether South India will be able to promote one of its leaders as the Prime Minister of the country in the foreseeable future. If yes it is only Jayalalitha that provides some glimmer of hope.

In the Alternate Front there are leaders like Nitesh Kumar, M S Yadav and Lalu Yadav waiting in the wings to be projected as the PM candidate. It is this rivalry among leaders of the front that may persuade them to opt for an outsider like Jayalalitha as a compromise candidate. Now that she has been acquitted by the High Court the chances of Jayalalitha emerging as a dark horse has increased several fold. But until she is declared clean by the Supreme Court as well her chances cannot be considered to be on a sound foundation.