Any man’s death diminishes me, Because I am involved in mankind, And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee. These poignant words by the English poet and priest...
As usual, the place to start is the US. There is a growing consensus that the the high valuations of some US corporations and the impact on the various sector and overall indices are not...
A major source of banks’ optimism is their various expectations of an economic recovery in 2020. It has to be said that this is not widely shared by other forecasters (including both the Fed and...
In case anyone was wondering, the title of this edition of Economic Insights is a misquotation from the C19 English poet Robert Browning and constitutes, therefore, a literary upgrade to the previous edition’s self-indulgent punning...
No excuse is ever required to admire the lustrous romanticism of the poet John Keats and here we are in Autumn (only in high Northern latitudes, of course!). Confusing metaphorical mists may be swirling around...
After trying hitherto to ignore politics as much as possible many traders have now become the keenest of followers. Even algorithmic programmes are being written to respond to key words in political speeches, announcements, news...
Overnight, China has published as usual data miraculously soon after the end of the period to which they relate. The way had been prepared for a drop in Q2 GDP to a 27-year low of...
As expected by nearly everyone except the futures market, the Fed did not cut rates last week and predicted only one in the future and not until next year. This contrasts with the futures market...
Conflict between sentiment and hard data is not unusual but is already looking like the biggest challenge for investors in 2019. Real activity Index chart comes from the collaboration on global economic data between the...
After four stunning Brexit votes so far this week in Parliament ‘No Deal’ is now definitely ruled out. This is not yet legally the case, but the Government dare not initiate or accept new legislation...
Markets were the lead story in October and definitely not a happy one. Instability, Rotation, Fed tightening, Trumpian unorthodoxy, Italian recalcitrance, Brexit ineptitude and, of course, the all-conquering overvalued FAANGs: all of them have contributed...
We are in a new phase of playing games: first, to avoid being blamed for a damaging divorce and second, the purely domestic (parochial?) contest to gain the keys to 10 Downing Street. These games...
