G20 Countries and their Economic issues due to COVID-19

, June 23, 2020, 0 Comments

The members of the G20 are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and the European Union. Due to Covid 19, several G20 Countries had a setback. Their economic problems are unique and distinct to their Country, yet as a group they have common challenging problems.  Here we understand their unique economic problems with respect to each country.g20-recession-marketexpress-in

Let us gauge the Economy analysis in each of the G20 countries.

Starting in late 2017, several factors created problems for Argentina’s economy: the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) began raising interest rates, reducing investor interest in Argentine bonds; the Argentine central bank resets its inflation targets, raising questions about its independence and commitment to lower inflation.

Australia Economic Issue, the Australian economy is expected to record a contraction in GDP of around 10 per cent over the first half of 2020; total hours worked are expected to decline by around 20 per cent and the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to around 10 per cent in the June quarter.

Brazil 2020 economic outlook darkens after lowest GDP growth in three years. The  economic  outlook is likely to pile pressure on President Jair Bolsonaro and his powerful  Economy  Minister Paulo Guedes, as private sector economists slash their 2020 growth forecasts to below 2%. But Guedes remains bullish.

In closing, growth in the Canadian economy is expected to increase slightly in 2020, from 1.5% in 2019 to 1.7%. A number of factors that were at the root of last year’s slowdown will continue to hinder the economy’s performance, but positive signs have already begun to emerge, particularly in the residential market.

China  Year over year, retail sales fell by 20.5 percent and industrial production by 13.5 percent—China’s worst numbers on record in 2020.

In France, The Covid-19 pandemic will push the economy into a deep recession this year. It is believed  to see the economy contracting 9.2% in 2020, which is down 2.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see it rebounding and expanding 6.4%.

According to the OECD, the German economy is expected to grow 0.4% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2021. Over the last 18 months, Germany narrowly avoided a recession twice.

For India, A number of firms, including Goldman Sachs and Nomura have projected a contraction of as much as 5% for India in FY21 with  output shrinking by 8% this year with a sluggish 1% recovery in 2021. The Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report released  said the lockdown would severely curtail activity despite fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Indonesia’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2020 amid the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, down from 5.0% in 2019, according to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report. Despite Indonesia’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the COVID-19 outbreak has changed the course of the economy, with the external environment deteriorating and domestic demand weakening.

In Italy, More than 178,000 companies had to lay off more than three million workers due to the economic shutdown. Many Italian workers were dependent on the nation’s once flourishing tourism industry. That accounts for 6 percent of Italy’s gross domestic product and provided employment to hundreds of thousands in Rome, Florence, Venice, Naples and other cities, as well as at Italy’s seaside resorts. Its 2020 GDP forecast of -8.3% compares with projections of -9.2% by the Bank of Italy, and  -9.5 percent by European Commission.

In Japan, The Jibun Bank Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which combines the PMIs of the services and manufacturing sectors, climbed to 27.4 in May, up from April’s revised 25.8 reading (previously reported: 27.8), according to a flash reading. To help businesses and consumers cope, the government rolled out stimulus worth roughly 20% of GDP in April, which subsumed previously announced stimulus and included subsidies for businesses to help them retain employees. On 27 May, the cabinet approved an additional stimulus which doubled the amount previously provided, bringing the total to 40% of GDP. In the same month, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ended the national state of emergency.

The Korean economy is forecast to grow a mere 0.2% in 2020 due to the huge losses in private consumption and exports. There will be a favourable recovery at 3.9% in 2021. Exports and imports will see huge losses for the time being due to COVID-19, followed by a gradual moderation led by goods exports from 2H 2020

In Mexico,  Output in the automotive sector, which forms the backbone of the country’s manufacturing industry, collapsed by 99% in April as plants shut down operations. Moreover, business closures and evaporated demand led both the manufacturing and services PMI to plunge to historic lows in the same month while a record number of formal jobs were lost from March. Meanwhile, on 13 May, authorities announced the gradual lifting of restrictions to get the economy back online, with the crucial auto industry among the first to restart operations. It is observed that the economy contracted 7.1% in 2020, which is down 2.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see GDP growth at 2.6%.

In Russia, GDP in Russia is expected to reach 1780.00 USD Billion by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics ‘ global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Russia GDP is projected to trend around 1910.00 USD Billion in 2021 and 2080.00 USD Billion in 2022, according to the  econometric models.

In Saudi Arabia, Gross domestic product could shrink more than 3% this year in what would be the first contraction since 2017 — and the biggest since 1999,  Brent crude traded at under $19 a barrel last — a quarter of the level Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget — leaving officials with limited options to offset economic pain without crippling public finances.

South Africa announced  that it has cut its economic growth forecast for 2020 by around half. They forecast that the South African economy will grow by 0.9% and inflation will average 4.5% in 2020, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said in a televised budget speech from parliament in Cape Town.

In  Turkey Growth is projected at 0.5 percent in 2020, over 3 percentage points lower than the pre-COVID-19 estimate. A more negative outcome is equally probable given the uncertainties. Growth is expected to be supported by a strong government stimulus. Investment is expected to fall further.

In the United Kingdom, GDP in the United Kingdom is expected to reach 3020.00 USD Billion by the end of 2020, according to global macro models and analysts expectations. The GDP growth forecasts may be 0.4 % by financial Year Q4 2021.

U.S. GDP growth will slow to 2.0% in 2020 from 2.2% in 2019. It will be 1.9% in 2021 and 1.8% in 2022. That’s according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 11, 2019.  The projected slowdown in was a side effect of the trade war.

EU heading for 5-10% economic contraction in 2020:  The European Union is heading this year towards a 5-10% economic contraction due to the new coronavirus outbreak.

All the G20 Countries are facing a recession. The aim is to not let the G20 Nations fall into a Global Depression from a Recession. All the G20 Countries are offering an Economic stimulus for the fiscal  correction in their country. With this Monetary stimulus not causing inflation with the increased Money Supply plus unemployment reduction in their country is the common agenda in all G20 Countries.