The Russia–Ukraine conflict and recent tensions in the Middle East have major implications for the world’s agricultural, food, and fertiliser markets. Global markets are reacting, and crude oil prices are climbing.

This conflict has caused major disruptions across global agricultural, food, and energy supply chains. As the world continues to recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, these added shocks have further strained an already vulnerable situation marked by rising food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition. Among these, a severe impact on the trade of another crucial agricultural commodity has been observed: Fertilisers.

Fertilisers play a crucial role in India’s agricultural productivity, sustaining the needs of over 1.4 billion people and supporting half the nation’s workforce. Despite being the world’s second-largest consumer of fertilisers, India remains heavily import-dependent for key nutrients to feed its crops: Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K). Together, they form NPK. Nitrogen boosts photosynthesis and leaf growth, phosphorus strengthens roots and flowers, and potassium improves drought and disease resistance. The war has shaken international supply chains, spiked prices of fertiliser inputs, and forced countries like India to recalibrate their sourcing strategies. As geopolitical uncertainties continue to reshape global commodity flows, India’s fertiliser trade stands at the intersection of diplomacy, food security, and economic resilience.

India is preparing to sow its kharif crop (mainly rice, corn, and cotton), which begins at the start of the monsoon in June. To absorb the shock, in the month of March, the country secured potash volumes through a contract with a Canadian supplier (Belarus’s and Russia’s biggest competitor). India also secured substantial volumes of Nitrogen through tenders in the first quarter of 2025. As a result, India’s immediate demands have been satisfied, but it will need to come up with more security for the farmers in the months to come.

Nitrogen fertilisers (like urea and ammonium nitrate) are made by synthesising ammonia, which is made from natural gas. The Middle East plays a key role in the global fertilizer market, especially in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers like ammonia and urea. In 2016, the region accounted for an estimated 17 million tons of ammonia production and 22 million tons of urea production, making it one of the largest producers globally. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are among the top exporters. With Iran exporting approximately 16–17 million tons of urea annually, it is the world’s third-largest urea supplier. What gives the region its competitive edge is the abundance of Natural Gas reserves (vital to produce Nitrogen based fertilisers), enabling for low-cost production and export-oriented operations.

The Israel- Iran conflict which began on the 13^th of June this year, immediately impacted global commodity markets, with crude oil prices surging by 7% to $74.23 per barrel for Brent crude and $72.98 for U.S. crude on the same day. Fertilizer prices followed suit, as the Middle East’s role in both energy and fertilizer production amplified market volatility. With global supplies already tight, wartime premiums like supply-chain disruptions, increased freight charges have intensified the import costs and subsidy burdens.

Most of what goes into making global fertiliser comes from conflict zones or countries one crisis away from sanctions or shipping bans. All this is leading to what economists call the second-order effects; Fertiliser shocks are often insidious, with their effects unfolding gradually rather than immediately. Unlike fuel price hikes, the impact is felt after a few months. For example, if urea prices rise, farmers may reduce usage or scale back sowing, leading to smaller harvests, and higher procurement costs for the traders. Eventually, these pressures translate into rising food prices which is reflected in a more expensive grocery bill.

India has managed to meet its immediate fertiliser needs through strategic sourcing, but the underlying vulnerabilities remain. With global supply chains tied to geopolitically fragile regions, fertiliser security is no longer just an agricultural issue—it is a matter of economic and strategic urgency. Building long-term resilience will require a shift from reactive procurement to structural reform: diversifying supply sources, promoting balanced use, and rethinking subsidies. As conflicts reshape global markets, ensuring stable and affordable fertiliser access is critical to safeguarding India’s food security and economic stability