What’s market pricing in?

Mumbai, December 17, 2011 : Another week has been gone pass and its no different this time, negative news continue to stock mint street and all market be it Equities, Currencies or commodities are making new records on downside. During the week Indian rupee falls to its ever low breached below 54 levels. Surprisingly the day it has breached earlier lows of 2009 it continue to slide. Depreciation simply accelerated after below 7% Quarterly GDP numbers, Negative Industrial Production number and above 9% November WPI inflation number. On top of this government admitted to a overstated US$ 9.4 bn export which raised the authenticity of data provided by government.

Equity Market – Not a True Picture

Leaving aside a handful of companies such as ITC, Hindustan Lever, Hero Honda, Infosys, Bajaj-Auto, TCS Tata Motors all A group companies are making new 52 week lows and picture in Mid Cap space is more horrible where most of then has fallen to even lows of March 2009. So NIFTY as per Friday close of 4651 is only a partial reflection of sentiment and only for sentimental value.  Rest of markets valuation at March 2009 levels. Top team of government should understand this as we the investor do not want growth to be discussed only on paper and only has reference value but instead we want to make money on real terms on our investment.

Perception Vs Reality

 Investor or trader is making less money now than they used to make it when nation was ruled by BJP or in the 1^st Term of UPA. Our competitiveness has diminished more that gets reflected in currency amrket and investor’s confidence is at all time low. A simple math to the current saga of 2G scam which acted as spoilsport is that the exact figure of 2G loss is indeterminable and even hypothetically we take 1.75 Lakh loss as put forward by various agencies after outbreak of scam we have lost more than 20 lakh crores in Market Capitalisation which is actual loss to Investor.

Credit crisis of 2009 accelerated after Lehman got burst in Sep 2008 but we are already getting worst day by day even before the fall of EUROZONE. Top Politician such as PM, FM and Commerce Minister is fooling investors openly and try to coverup their inability to find the solution of basic problems such as Inflation, Price Rise, Fiscal Deficit and Productivity.

Conclusion

No matter what FM or PM talks about economy at various forums and function the real numbers are indicating a true and very dark picture of our economy that is getting priced in to markets. The Year 2011 turned out to be a total loser for all of us where by if planned it could have been otherwise.