The G20 now represents 75% of world trade, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population and more than 80% of the gross world product.
Officially, there is parity between the countries of the North and the South: ten on one side and ten on the other. Institutionally, however, the relative weights within the club still remain in favour of the rich countries, thanks in particular to the inclusion of the European Union (EU) as a full member, but also of South Korea, which is classified as a developing country even though it is a member of the OECD, and above all the very active presence of the major international institutions, which are still dominated by Western countries, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
In contrast, the G20 agenda has been increasingly shaped by the priorities of emerging countries. The shift began with China’s very active presidency in 2016, followed by Saudi Arabia’s in 2020 in the midst of the pandemic. Due to the principle of a three-year co-presidency, the calendar is now in the process of consecrating the shift towards the pre-eminence of the countries of the South due to a quadrupling of presidencies: Indonesia in 2022, India in 2023, then Brazil in 2024, that of Lula da Silva, and finally South Africa in 2025. In addition, it was decided this year to include the African Union to compensate for the presence of the EU and strengthen the place of Africa, still marginal, while it is increasingly central to the challenges of the planet.
Bali: priority to global public goods
The Indonesian presidency, which ended with the Bali summit in November 2022, is indicative of a change of direction. The first G7 meetings were solely devoted to the macroeconomic stability of the world, with a very Western vision in geopolitical terms and orthodox in economic terms. The final communiqué of Bali, although adopted unanimously as is the rule of the G20, illustrates the shift towards greater geopolitical multipolarity and the inclusive promotion of global public goods instead of simply managing macroeconomic imbalances as in the past: health, education, infrastructure, taxation, trade, solidarity, virtual currencies, etc. It is worth reading its 20 pages and 52 points, which are far from being mere rhetoric.
Especially since the Bali summit was held during the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and just before the COP15 on biodiversity in Montreal but under the Chinese presidency, and Bali has largely contributed to their success, even if it is not very successful. The theme of the Indonesian presidency, “Recover together, recover stronger”, could have been undermined by the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the absence of a final communiqué was even considered for a moment.
The final declaration simply began with a statement of disagreement on the subject, skilfully diplomaticized to please all parties. It mainly used a strong formula expressed by the Indian Prime Minister to his counterpart Putin at the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit in Samarkand in September 2022: “This is not an era for war”. The focus then shifted to the challenges facing the planet in the coming years and how to address them collectively in a spirit of “sharing responsibility for sharing the burden.
“One land, one family, one future”
The Indian presidency, which took over in December, will clearly continue in this direction, even if we can be concerned about the instrumentalization of the G20 by the Hindu nationalist Prime Minister, who has every intention of running for a third term in the 2024 elections. He started well by using an ancient Hindu religious myth: Vasudaiva Kutumbakam (the world is one family) to illustrate the slogan of his presidency: “One land, one family, one future”. But who can deny that this is a strong message at a time when there is talk of de-globalization or fragmentation of the world?
The same is true for the Indian G20 logo, where the planet is placed on a lotus, a religious symbol par excellence, even though it is found in both Buddhism and Hinduism. Its petals are supposed to represent the seven continents but also the universal number of notes in music. The Indian presidency states that “when the seven notes come together, they create a perfect harmony. But each note has its own unique character. In the same way, the G20 aims to bring the world together in harmony while respecting diversity.”
The priorities of the Indian presidency
Beyond these ambiguities, the agenda announced by India enshrines the desire to give precedence to the interests of what is now called the “global South” in response to what it perceives as a “polycrisis” of the world order and a risk of polarization.
The country benefits from exceptional diplomatic power based on its prestige as co-founder of the Non-Aligned Movement at the Belgrade summit in 1961, from a diaspora that enjoys key positions in major international institutions (vice-presidency of the IMF) or at the head of large global firms such as Google (Sundar Pichai), and finally from an opportunistic “ni-ni” position between the Western world and Russia or China.
It would be a matter of redefining the notion of growth by emphasizing its quality, of putting at the center of the G20 agenda the famous seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the UN for 2030, and finally of paying greater attention to the countries lagging behind on these goals thanks to a favorable international environment, an increase in the provision of global public goods and increased cooperation for development aid. No doubt New Delhi will advance its goals and the baton will be taken up immediately by Brazil and then South Africa. Who thinks that this is the time for pessimism on the planet?
